Executive Summary: The degradation of the Russian army in Ukraine has made it a crucible for the growth of criminal attitudes and extremist beliefs that will threaten Russian society and government as veterans return home. When as many as 700,000 veterans do eventually return home—100,000... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia advanced operational bloc-building at their May 2025 summit, issuing dense agreements and three joint statements that laid out a shared strategic vision across defense, technology, law, and multilateral governance. The summit marked a shift from... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas postings, Ambassador Bajarūnas served as the Ambassador of Lithuania to Russia and as Deputy Ambassador of... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility. Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating... MORE

Executive Summary: A new white paper titled “China’s National Security in the New Era” is targeted to both domestic and international audiences and offers “Chinese wisdom” and solutions to contemporary challenges. In a bid for global leadership, the document frames “unstoppable” world historical trends as... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing is on course to dominate innovation in and production of legacy semiconductor chips, which strategists see as a way to push back against U.S.-led containment in critical technologies. These chips, used everywhere from vehicles to defense, offer a scalable and resilient path... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE